The results will give an insight into how voters view the government's effort to tackle inflation, rising interest rates and NHS waiting lists and whether they think it's time to give Sir Keir Starmer a go at solving them. A swing of 15 points would topple yet another Tory seat in the south of England. Given stellar Liberal Democrat performances since 2021, Somerton and Frome should be easy pickings for the party David Cameron once obliterated from the South West. Gaining Selby would also set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a by-election. This is beyond both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls. Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Johnson ally Nigel Adams has stepped aside, requires an 18-point swing for a Labour win. Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, vacated by Mr Johnson himself, gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament. The Conservative Party's implosion over MP misconduct and whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament has presented election watchers with an intriguing set of contests. On Thursday, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day. She pays tribute to the counter-terror professionals: "It's thanks to them that we do not have a great many more broken hearts in our country" īy Dr Hannah Bunting and Professor Will Jennings, Sky election analysts.Northern Ireland related terrorism remains a threat as well, she says.She says these communities form online and are "exploited by hostile state actors" such as Russia and Iran, designed to sow discord in the West."It's not the same in scale or nature as Islamism," the Home Secretary says.22% of attacks since 2018 have been extreme-right terror, and it take up around a quarter of MI5 caseload.Islamist terror accounts for three-quarters of MI5 caseload."We judge that the risk from terrorism is rising, albeit from a lower base and not as high as a few years ago".The threat today is "more dynamic, diverse, and complex"."While Islamist terrorism remains the predominant threat, the key point today is that terrorist attacks are becoming increasingly unpredictable, making them harder to detect and investigate".Turning to CONTEST, she says the aim is for everyone in Britain to be able to go about their lives freely.She says state threats and non-state threats often blur together, and therefore need tackling together.The Home Secretary says Russia is currently the biggest threat to UK security, and China poses a similar threat as well.She says the UK is not racist, "contrary to received wisdom on the left".She says we do not have blasphemy laws, and "we cannot accept their de facto enforcement by mob intimidation"."Everything must be done to prevent such intimidation". ![]() This is why she was "horrified" by the reaction to a Koran being scuffed, and a teacher in Batley being "hounded out" of a school for showing a picture of the Prophet Muhammad, and.She says studies have shown that "ideology is of central importance".Terror movements are "growing in significance and complexity, whether its Islamism or the extreme right-wing"."There is no shortage of people who want to undermine them through extremism and terrorism".She says we are reminded every day that not all countries enjoy the freedoms that we do in Britain - they are the "basis of our shared values" in the UK.The Home Secretary says she has "no time" for those who "sneer" at people who say Britain is great. ![]()
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